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Trump et les effets pervers

En faisant cette fracassante déclaration sur la reconnaissance de Jérusalem comme capitale d’Israël, Donald Trump a agi, une fois de plus, de manière irresponsable avec une totale indifférence aux implications internationales de son acte.

Sa préoccupation a d’abord été de consolider sa base électorale -composée de millions d’évangéliques sionistes -de la «Bible belt» située dans ces Etats du Sud des Etats-Unis où Trump a obtenu, en 2016, des scores de plus de 60% même si cela n’a pas empêché, il y a quelques jours en Alabama, une défaite de son candidat au Sénat. Il réalise ainsi une de ses promesses de campagne : le transfert de l’ambassade américaine à Jérusalem.

Cette décision a été très bien accueillie en Israël bien au-delà de la coalition au pouvoir puisque cette question rassemble une large majorité dans le pays. Il apparait ainsi comme un précieux allié pour les Israéliens. A très court terme, il peut donc se targuer d’un succès politique à l’intérieur comme à l’extérieur. Mais ce succès est porteur de multiples et lourds effets pervers, c’est-à-dire de conséquences non voulues qui sont à l’opposé de ce qu’il pouvait rechercher.

1

L’isolement des Etats-Unis sur la scène internationale est apparu de manière spectaculaire. D’abord par des réactions politiques qui ont fusé de partout y compris de ses alliés européens. Ensuite, il y a eu cette séquence au Conseil de sécurité où les Etats-Unis ont été obligés de recourir à leur droit de veto, signe manifeste de leur impuissance puisqu’ils ne sont donc capables que de s’opposer alors qu’ils avaient l’ambition de proposer. La violence des propos tenus par l’ambassadrice américaine, Nikki Haley, en témoigne quand elle déclare que «c’est une insulte et un camouflet que nous n’oublierons pas». Allant même jusqu’à la menace ciblée en affirmant que «les Etats-Unis noteront les noms» de ceux qui leur ont infligé cette déroute diplomatique… Impuissance de la puissance !

Même fiasco à l’Assemblée générale le 21 décembre : 128 Etats ont condamné la décision du président américain. 35 se sont abstenus. Et 9 ont voté contre (Etats-Unis, Israël, Togo, Guatemala, Honduras, et quatre micro-Etats du Pacifique qui, au total, comptent environ 200.000 habitants : Micronésie, Nauru, Palau et les îles Marshall).

Plus prersonne n’attend quoi que ce soit du plan de paix annoncé en termes très vagues par Donald Trump. Désormais, ce personnage a en effet perdu toute chance de pouvoir jouer le rôle «d’honest broker» qu’il prétendait tenir, sauf à changer complètement d’attitude. Symptomatique à cet égard a été la réaction de Mahmoud Abbas. Alors que, depuis des années, le président palestinien a fondé toute son action politique sur la conviction que les Etats-Unis seraient capables d’oeuvrer pour une paix équilibrée entre Israël et la Palestine, il récuse désormais Washington en termes cinglants : «il faut être fou pour laisser Trump médiateur».

A ce résultat calamiteux, il faut ajouter d’autres effets pervers au Moyen-Orient : Trump a renforcé ses adversaires comme l’Iran et le Hezbollah et déstabilisé ses alliés les plus proches comme la Jordanie et l’Egypte…

2

Alors que le président américain voulait ignorer le droit interrnational, le monde entier lui en a rappelé avec fermeté l’incontournable centralité. Et ce avec d’autant plus de force qu’une résolution du Conseil de sécurité votée en décembre 2016, avec l’abstention des Etats-Unis (sous l’administration Obama), avait réaffirmé tous les principes fondamentaix de toute approche du conflit israélo-palestinien comme l’inadmissiblité de l’acquisition de territoires par la force, l’illégalité de la colonisation, le respect du droit humanitaire par la Puissance occupante et l’illégalité de toute modification unilatérale du statu quo… Aucun Etat n’a emboîté le pas aux Etats-Unis dans cette démarche aventureuse de négation du droit. Même ceux qui sont proches d’Israël comme la République tchèque (seul pays européen à voter non à l’admission de la Palestine comme Etat observateur à l’ONU le 29 novembre 2012), ont rappelé que Jérusalem-Est était un territoire occupé. Les Palestiniens ont d’ailleurs bien compris cette force du droit puisqu’ils ont aussitôt annoncé leur intention de signer un grand nombre de conventions pour adhérer à toutes les organisations internationales et exprimé leur volonté d’accélérer la procédure de saisine de la Cour pénale internationale.

Dans une telle configuration, il faudrait que des Etats qui comptent sur la scène mondiale, comme la France, l’Allemagne et quelques autres, prennent de nouvelles initiatives diplomatiques pour réinventer un processus de négociation mort depuis longtemps. Et puisque chacun sait que la seule solution viable est celle de deux Etats avec Jérusalem comme capitale, cela devrait commencer par la reconnaissance de l’Etat de Palestine qui serait pleinement légitime puisque fondée sur la légalité internationale.

 

Dans L’Orient littéraire,
Janvier 2018

Jean-Paul Chagnollaud,
Professeur émérite des universités,
Président de l’iReMMO

Étiqueté

250 réponses

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