30 septembre 2019
Le monde arabe a connu, en 2011, une succession de révolutions et de soulèvements populaires. De Tunis au Caire, de Sanaa à Manama, de Benghazi à Deraa, Homs et Alep, ces révolutions ont affronté des régimes de tyrannie, de corruption et de suspension du temps politique. Elles ont suscité un énorme espoir et réussi en deux ans à pousser trois présidents crus indéboulonnables – Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Moubarak et Ali Abdallah Saleh – vers la sortie. Une intervention militaire internationale en a fait chuter un quatrième, Mouammar Kadhafi. Des élections relativement libres en Tunisie, en Égypte et en Libye ont suivi, et des projets de Constitution ont été présentés aux grands débats. De nouvelles dynamiques politiques paraissaient à l’ordre du jour, partout dans la région. Mais l’an 2013 fut témoin d’un violent retournement de situation. La férocité de la répression en Syrie (y compris à l’arme chimique) qui avait transformé le processus révolutionnaire en conflit armé, le coup d’État militaire renversant le président élu en Égypte, le manque d’expérience politique et les échecs des transitions en Libye et au Yémen, l’émergence de l’État islamique ou encore les luttes acharnées entre acteurs régionaux (notamment l’Iran et l’Arabie saoudite) ont tous créé des impasses et généralisé la cruauté et la terreur. Désormais, une phase contre-révolutionnaire s’est installée, dont les différents auteurs – quelles que soient leurs divergences d’intérêts – ont prétendu ramener la stabilité. Cette stabilité était redevenue l’ultime priorité des politiques étrangères occidentales, au détriment des libertés et de la justice, par crainte de l’arrivée des réfugiés et de la montée des forces de l’islam politique.
La suite connaîtra des interventions militaires iranienne et russe en Syrie, saoudienne et émiratie au Yémen, américaine contre l’État islamique en Irak et en Syrie, et un chaos répandu en Libye. Elle connaîtra également la paralysie du système onusien, laissant par son inaction des gouvernements auteurs de crimes de guerre et crimes contre l’humanité sévir en toute tranquillité.
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Malgré ces revers tragiques, et malgré les nombreuses déchirures et catastrophes humanitaires, certains des acquis des révolutions arrachés en 2011 et 2012 se sont consolidés. De la souffrance et des échecs sont nés des écrits, de l’art, des récits, une parole nouvelle qui fonde une mémoire collective face aux révisionnisme et négationnisme des régimes et de leurs relais, et une volonté que portent des militants et des juristes (en partie exilés) d’en finir avec l’impunité dans leurs pays. Il s’est formé aussi, dans plusieurs sociétés longtemps bâillonnées par la censure et l’autocensure, une puissance dans l’expression de la résistance à toute hégémonie. On observe encore aujourd’hui le courage et la richesse des débats et des initiatives que porte cette expression, notamment sur les droits des femmes, les libertés personnelles, la religion, la question communautaire, la violence, la prison, la corruption et le rôle politique des militaires. Et on constate à quel point il est difficile pour les contre-révolutions de l’étouffer.
À cela s’ajoute le cas de la Tunisie qui représente, malgré les failles et les nombreux défis, un modèle de transition politique prometteur. Cette exception tunisienne s’explique surtout par le fait que l’armée a gardé ses distances avec le champ politique, et n’a pas opté pour la répression en 2011. La chute de Ben Ali a été rapide, et les forces politiques du pays ont fait preuve durant et après la révolution de beaucoup de pragmatisme et de « modération ». En outre, la société tunisienne, moins divisée verticalement que la plupart des sociétés arabes et dotée d’une large classe moyenne éduquée, semble réussir son pari démocratique, même si les risques de régression que peuvent provoquer les déceptions sociales et économiques pèsent toujours.
Nouvelle vague ?
Depuis février 2019, un nouveau souffle vient secouer la région et renforcer les acquis des révolutions. Il est porté cette fois par les Soudanais et les Algériens. Comme leurs voisins en Tunisie ou en Égypte en 2011, les millions de manifestants pacifistes à Khartoum, Alger et Oran se sont réapproprié l’espace public, ont reconstruit des liens de solidarité sociale et retrouvé une fierté perdue depuis de longues décennies. Réclamant à leur tour la liberté, le changement, les réformes, la justice et le retrait des présidents qui se voulaient « éternels », ils montrent que les contre-révolutions et les militaires ne sont pas une fatalité régionale.
Leurs soulèvements ont ainsi encouragé des milliers d’Égyptiens, soumis depuis 6 ans au règne du général Sissi, à sortir de nouveau dans les rues en ce mois de septembre. Une deuxième phase révolutionnaire semble débuter, avec ses promesses et ses ambiguïtés. Et s’il est encore tôt pour se prononcer avec certitude sur ses scénarios et aboutissements, ce qui est certain en revanche, c’est que plusieurs des processus déclenchés il y a huit ans sont toujours en vie et que leurs échos et conséquences nous accompagneront longtemps encore.
Par Ziad Majed
Professeur universitaire, membre du conseil scientifique de l’Iremmo. Dernier ouvrage : « Dans la tête de Bachar al-Assad », avec Subhi Hadidi et Farouk Mardam-Bey (Actes Sud, 2018)
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Archived April 3, 2007, on the Wayback Machine.
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