5 mars 2020
Les cinq raisons d’un sursaut
[Tribune] Tout aurait dû conduire à une défaite retentissante de Benyamin Netanyahou : l’usure d’un Premier ministre au pouvoir depuis treize ans, sa triple inculpation pour corruption, fraude et abus de confiance, son incapacité à trouver un modus vivendi avec les Palestiniens, sa politique néolibérale créatrice de pauvreté et d’inégalités…
Et pourtant, contre toute attente, le chef du Likoud est arrivé en tête, le 2 mars, du dernier scrutin anticipé que sa seule obstination avait provoqué : au dernier décompte, il ne lui manque que trois sièges pour disposer de la majorité de 61 sièges nécessaire à sa réélection comme Premier ministre. Pourquoi ?
La première raison tient évidemment à la lassitude de l’électorat, contraint à voter pour la troisième fois afin de sortir le pays d’une impasse politique de plus d’un an, dont on ne mesure pas ici les conséquences économiques et sociales – à commencer par le ralentissement de la croissance et l’augmentation du déficit budgétaire. Qui va en faire les frais ?
La deuxième raison réside bien sûr dans la supériorité indiscutable de la campagne menée par « Bibi » par rapport à celle de ses adversaires juifs. Netanyahou est un animal politique sans scrupule, prêt à tout pour l’emporter : il a littéralement « hystérisé » la bataille, n’hésitant ni à bombarder la Syrie et l’Irak comme la bande de Gaza, ni à présenter les Arabes comme des tueurs prêts à « exterminer » les Juifs israéliens, ni à s’allier avec des dirigeants populistes étrangers, négationnistes, voire antisémites. Il a même réussi à transformer son inculpation en atout, car résultat, selon lui, d’un soi-disant « complot » de la gauche.
Mais la troisième raison est sans doute la plus importante : il s’agit du cadeau que lui a offert Donald Trump avec son « deal du siècle ». Le président états-unien considérait visiblement la réélection de Benyamin Netanyahou comme une condition de la sienne. Après Jérusalem-Est et le Golan, il a donc donné à son allié la moitié de la Cisjordanie – la Vallée du Jourdain et les colonies, y compris les « avant-postes » –, plus la possibilité de transférer administrativement les 400 000 Palestiniens du Triangle. Autrement dit, comme disait Arthur Koestler à propos de la Déclaration Balfour, « une nation a solennellement promis à une deuxième le territoire d’une troisième ». Rien moins que cela, en effet : le plan Netanyahou-Trump, ce pourrait être la victoire définitive d’Israël, via l’enterrement de la question de Palestine au terme d’un viol sauvage du droit international et d’une marginalisation de l’Organisation des Nations unies (ONU).
Face à ce Premier ministre en passe de réaliser les rêves de toujours de la droite et de l’extrême droite israéliennes, pas un seul de ses concurrents –à la seule exception de la Liste dite arabe, bien qu’elle comporte le Parti communiste judéo-arabe et attire de plus en plus d’électeurs juifs – ne proposait une alternative globale. Ni le leader Bleu Blanc, qui répliqua aux promesses d’annexion de Netanyahou en l’accusant de lui « voler son programme », et, logiquement, alla jusqu’à endosser le plan Trump. Ni la gauche sioniste, qui a abandonné jusqu’à la perspective des deux États (1). Ni même Avigdor Liberman, qui ne se différenciait du Likoud et de ses alliés que par un discours antireligieux. Rien là de quoi mobiliser l’électorat populaire.
Reste une cinquième raison, plus fondamentale encore. Dans la droite ligne de son maître Menahem Begin, Benyamin Netanyahou a réussi à associer la majorité des Juifs pauvres à une politique au service des Juifs riches. Il en va ainsi, dira-t-on, de la plupart des populistes parvenus au pouvoir dans la dernière décennie. Sauf qu’en Israël, cette alliance de classes se double d’une mobilisation des Orientaux contre les Ashkénazes. Le vote des premiers pour le Likoud et, plus généralement, pour l’extrême droite continue d’exprimer la haine des Juifs arabes pour le Parti travailliste qui les a, des décennies durant, discriminés et humiliés.
Tout cela explique le véritable renversement qui s’est produit sur la longue période: les Travaillistes et le Meretz ont obtenu 7 sièges, contre 24 en 2015 et… 65 en 1949 ! Le bloc droite-ultraorthodoxes, lui, a décroché 58 sièges, contre 61 en 2015 et… 14 en 1949.
Bref, c’est bien pour des raisons structurelles autant que conjoncturelles que les élections du 2 mars 2020 entreront sans doute dans l’histoire du conflit israélo-palestinien comme celles d’un feu vert donné par les Israéliens à une fuite en avant annexionniste sans précédent.
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