« Vous vous intéressez encore à cette question ? », me disait, il y a quelques mois, un important diplomate, alors que je lui demandais où en était la politique de la France à l’égard du conflit israélo-palestinien. Avec le ton aimablement affligé de celui qui essaie de faire comprendre à son interlocuteur à quel point il est en retard d’une séquence. En d’autres termes : ce problème n’en est plus un, il suffit de le gérer, les enjeux sont ailleurs. Fin de l’histoire.
Cette marginalisation s’est opérée en plusieurs étapes. Les derniers pourparlers sérieux remontent à 2014, lorsque John Kerry, le secrétaire d’Etat de l’administration du président Barack Obama, avait tenté, en vain, d’enclencher des négociations entre [le président de l’Autorité palestinienne] Mahmoud Abbas et [le premier ministre israélien] Benyamin Nétanyahou. Quant au Conseil de sécurité, sa dernière initiative remonte au 23 décembre 2016, avec l’adoption à l’unanimité d’une résolution (2334) dans laquelle, après avoir rappelé « sa vision d’une région où deux Etats démocratiques, Israël et la Palestine, vivent côte à côte », il réaffirme que « l’acquisition de territoires par la force est inadmissible », que « le statu quo n’est pas viable », que « la création de colonies par Israël constitue une violation flagrante du droit international » et qu’« Israël, puissance occupante, est tenu de respecter ses obligations découlant de la quatrième convention de Genève ».
Un mois plus tard, Donald Trump s’installait à la Maison Blanche, et tout a basculé : reconnaissance de Jérusalem comme capitale d’Israël (décembre 2017), fermeture du consulat des Etats-Unis à Jérusalem-Est, réduction drastique de l’aide à l’UNRWA [l’agence des Nations unies chargée des 5,8 millions de réfugiés palestiniens au Proche-Orient]… Et, en janvier 2020, un plan de paix très simple : tout, tout de suite, pour les Israéliens, et quelque chose, plus tard, peut-être, pour les Palestiniens. Clé de voûte de cette politique : la paix entre des Etats arabes et Israël. Les accords d’Abraham (août 2020) normalisent les relations entre Israël, les Emirats arabes unis et Bahreïn, bientôt suivis par le Maroc et le Soudan, l’Egypte ayant déjà signé un traité de paix en 1979 et la Jordanie en 1994. Depuis, la grande question était de savoir non pas si l’Arabie saoudite allait se joindre au mouvement, mais plutôt quand et dans quelles conditions.
Pour Netanyahou, depuis toujours radicalement hostile à l’idée d’un Etat palestinien, cette nouvelle configuration était presque inespérée. Déjà, comme Premier ministre de 1996 à 1999, il avait tout fait pour torpiller le processus d’Oslo qu’il considérait comme étant « le problème et non la solution ». Posture d’autant plus affirmée aujourd’hui qu’Il s’est allié à des leaders de la droite la plus extrémiste appartenant à la même mouvance idéologique que ceux qui ont assassiné Yitzhak Rabin en novembre 1995. L’objectif déclaré de cette coalition étant l’annexion de la Cisjordanie impliquant la totale soumission des 3 millions de Palestiniens qui y vivent et la poursuite du blocus de Gaza pour garder enfermés les deux millions de personnes (à plus de 80% des réfugiés de 1948) qui s’y trouvent.
La cause palestinienne - infiniment légitime- qui rejaillit ainsi au premier plan dans toute sa centralité risque, au moment même de sa réapparition, d’être ensevelie pour longtemps sous les cendres de ces actes effroyablement mortifères.
Face à cette brutale et rapide dégradation de leur position internationale, les Palestiniens ont été incapables de réagir. Au lieu de chercher à retrouver le chemin de leur unité nationale, comme à l’époque d’Arafat et de l’OLP, le Hamas et l’Autorité palestinienne n’ont cessé de se combattre. Le Hamas s’enfermant dans une gouvernance autoritaire à Gaza et l’Autorité s’enfonçant dans une stérile coopération sécuritaire avec Israël en ignorant les aspirations de sa jeunesse auprès de laquelle elle a perdu toute crédibilité.
Ce consensus de l’aveuglement ne pouvait pas ne pas être à un moment ou à un autre violemment percuté par le retour en force d’une réalité qu’on ne peut ignorer : celle d’un peuple de plus de 11 millions d’âmes aspirant à l’autodétermination. Une partie est en exil dans des camps de réfugiés et une autre se trouve sous la domination d’une puissance occupante depuis 1967. Ce qui signifie notamment que toute une jeunesse (la majorité de ce peuple) est privée d’avenir, c’est-à-dire empêchée de vivre. D’où ces actes de résistance qu’on a vus ces derniers temps notamment à Naplouse ou à Jénine avec son cortège de jeunes tués par l’armés israélienne,189 depuis janvier 2023 selon les Nations unies (OCHA).
La seule interrogation était de savoir d’où viendrait ce retour en force : d’une nouvelle forme d’intifada en Cisjordanie ou de Gaza avec le Hamas ? Les autorités israéliennes ont privilégié la première hypothèse. Gaza semblant sous contrôle avec une barrière de sécurité réputée infranchissable. Ce fût une grossière erreur d’anticipation. Par terre, par mer et même par les airs, le Hamas a attaqué Israël et, en quelques heures, a rappelé au monde entier avec une violence inouïe que la question palestinienne ne pouvait être ignorée.
Dans un premier temps, presque éphémère, cette initiative quasi militaire a été un succès. En quelques heures, la question palestinienne est revenue au premier plan infligeant un revers cinglant à tous ceux qui avaient pensé pouvoir l’enterrer ou l’ignorer. Mais elle s’est déroulée de la pire des façons puisqu’elle a été immédiatement entachée par d’odieux massacres de centaines de civils israéliens et par des prises d’otages. Rien, absolument rien, ne peut justifier de telles atrocités qui ne peuvent qu’être fermement condamnées. Au-delà de la qualification de terroristes qui écrase toute contextualisation et entretient la confusion entre des situations très différentes, ces actes commis dans une guerre entre deux peuples sont des crimes de guerre et des crimes contre l’humanité au sens du Statut de la Cour pénale internationale (articles 7 et 8).
Ainsi la cause palestinienne – infiniment légitime- qui rejaillit ainsi au premier plan dans toute sa centralité risque, au moment même de sa réapparition, d’être ensevelie pour longtemps sous les cendres de ces actes effroyablement mortifères. Le destin des Palestiniens se trouve ainsi à nouveau à la croisée des chemins : ou bien il entre dans une longue période de malheurs et de souffrances ou bien l’intelligence politique des responsables des grandes puissances transforme cette tragédie en un sursaut politique pour aborder sur le fond le conflit israélo-palestinien.
Jean-Paul Chagnollaud
Président de l’iReMMO
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